Every game has a
true number.
EdgeCard builds an independent probability for each matchup from the facts alone, then de-vigs the market to expose where the two disagree. The gap is the read — written up and sourced.
From facts to divergence, in three steps.
No line on the screen until our own number is written down. We price the game before we ever look at the market — and the order is what keeps it honest.
Build the number
Form, the tape, expected goals, styles, layoffs — turned into a true probability from the evidence. The betting line is never an input.
De-vig the market
Strip the bookmaker's margin out of the price to recover what the market actually believes — clean and comparable to our number.
Read the divergence
Our probability beside the market's. Where they part ways, that delta is the edge — written up with every source cited.
Where the two columns part ways.
Model probability, de-vigged market, and the delta between them — line by line. Green is an edge; grey is an honest pass.
When the gap is zero, we say so.
The market is sharp more often than not. When our number lands on the de-vigged price, there's no edge to report — we mark it "no edge" and move on. The discipline to pass is the whole point.
Three sports live. More on the way.
Live data, win probabilities, an upset read, and a cited analyst breakdown on every matchup — starting with UFC, MLB, and the World Cup.
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The number behind every game, plus a cited analyst breakdown — delivered as a newsletter. Live for UFC/MMA, MLB, and the World Cup — more sports coming.